Profile PictureVelina Tchakarova

Global System Outlook – Trends, Risks and Scenarios

Velina Tchakarova
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This is a short handbook about my Global System concept I have developed over the last ten years. It helps me cover geopolitical and geoeconomic trends, outline possible trend developments regarding the key state and non-state actors, assess probable risks and develop scenarios for the future. The Global System will be facing a general process of decline due to a global economic slowdown, stagnating trade and deteriorating globalization, but also because of worsening political and socio-economic indicators following Covid-19 crisis outbreak in 2020. At the top of the iceberg, I identify three systemic issues with the greatest potential for disruptive impact and possible unintended consequences.

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Global affairs have become exceedingly complex, as globalization has created intertwined networks that merged into a Global System in recent decades without attracting much attention. The following overview is an attempt to outline the three most systemic developments as well as to elaborate on possible implications for global affairs

International Relations
Global Trends
Macro Analysis
Systems Thinking
Global Risks
Scenario Monitoring
381 KB
49 pages

Global System Outlook – Trends, Risks and Scenarios

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